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Academic

Work in progress

Relocatable Capital: Theory and Empirical Evidence from 35 Million Lien Filings

Abstract:

This paper studies the dynamics of capital reallocation. Leveraging a novel dataset of over 25 million lien filings spanning four US states, this paper documents capital reallocation patterns for over two million unique pieces of heavy equipment and machinery at the serial number level. Reallocation of these capital goods is significantly procyclical and three times as volatile as aggregate output. A dynamic heterogeneous firm general equilibrium model with trade in used and new capital goods is developed to show that the coincidence of lower capital reallocation and lower output can be explained by the asymmetric nature of recessions: smaller, higher-growth firms are affected more in recessions than larger, lower-growth firms. This asymmetry implies that demand for used capital declines disproportionately more than the supply of used capital increases, which results in a lower quantity of used capital traded and a lower price of used capital during recessions. The implication of this explanation is that the lower rate of capital reallocation observed during recessions is partly due to an efficient response of the economy to asymmetric changes in the firm productivity distribution. The model is capable of rationalising a variety of investment-related business cycle moments including the puzzling negative correlation between productivity dispersion and capital reallocation observed in the data.

Policy

Prosperity Through Health: The Macroeconomic Case for Investing in Preventative Health Care in the UK

Co-authors: Professor Sir John Bell (Ellison Institute of Technology), Tamsin Berry (Ellison Institute of Technology), Professor John Deanfield (UCL), Dr Ines Hassan (Tony Blair Institute), Dr Roshni Joshi (Tony Blair Institute), Professor Andrew Scott (LBS)​

Abstract:

In this report, we argue for a shift towards preventative healthcare measures to address the economic challenges posed by an aging population and increasing disease burden. Using our novel model that combines health interventions with macroeconomic indicators, we estimate that a 20% reduction in six major disease categories could boost annual GDP by £26.3 billion within ten years and generate significant fiscal savings. We highlight the potential of treatments targeting multiple conditions, such as GLP-1 RA drugs, to unlock even greater economic benefits. Our case study on cardiovascular disease interventions demonstrates that even targeted treatments can yield substantial long-term economic gains. We emphasize the need for swift implementation of prevention programs and suggest starting with cardiovascular disease-focused initiatives due to available cost-effective interventions. We conclude that prioritizing preventative health measures can create a virtuous cycle of improved health, economic growth, and sustainable healthcare budgets.

Press coverage: The Guardian

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